The Verdict
Wolves (100%) and Burnley (99.8%) are as good as down. Spurs are now the favourites for the final relegation spot at 54.7%, ahead of West Ham (25.3%) and Nott'm Forest (16.0%). Leeds have moved to relative safety at just 4.1%.
Current Standings
| # | Team | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 70 | |
| 2 | Man City | 64 | |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 55 | |
| 4 | Man Utd | 55 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 52 | |
| 6 | Chelsea | 48 | |
| 7 | Brentford | 47 | |
| 8 | Everton | 47 | |
| 9 | Brighton | 46 | |
| 10 | Sunderland | 46 | |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 45 | |
| 12 | Fulham | 44 | |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 42 | |
| 14 | Newcastle | 42 | |
| 15 | Leeds | 36 | AT RISK |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | 33 | AT RISK |
| 17 | West Ham | 32 | AT RISK |
| 18 | Spurs | 30 | RELEGATION ZONE |
| 19 | Burnley | 20 | RELEGATION ZONE |
| 20 | Wolves | 17 | RELEGATION ZONE |
Points as of 15 April 2026 (Matchday 32). All teams have played 32 matches except Man City (31).
Relegation Probability
Based on 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations using baseline home/draw/away probabilities (45%/25%/30%).
Most Likely Relegated Trios
The top 4 combinations account for 99.8% of all outcomes.
Show less likely combinations...
Expected Final Points Distribution
Projected point totals from simulation. The projected survival line this season is around 40 points.
| Team | Worst (5%) | 25th | Median | 75th | Best (95%) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeedsSAFE | 39 | 42 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 44.3 |
| Nott'm ForestAT RISK | 36 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 46 | 41.2 |
| West HamAT RISK | 35 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 40.3 |
| SpursDOWN | 33 | 36 | 38 | 40 | 43 | 38.2 |
| BurnleyDOWN | 23 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 33 | 28.3 |
| WolvesDOWN | 20 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 25.2 |
What Each Team Needs to Survive
Leeds
36 ptsNeed 4 pts from 6 games to reach 40
= 1 win + 1 draw minimum(22% of available points)
Nott'm Forest
33 ptsNeed 7 pts from 6 games to reach 40
= 2 wins + 1 draw minimum(39% of available points)
West Ham
32 ptsNeed 8 pts from 6 games to reach 40
= 2 wins + 2 draws minimum(44% of available points)
Spurs
30 ptsNeed 10 pts from 6 games to reach 40
= 3 wins + 1 draw minimum(56% of available points)
Burnley
20 ptsNeed 20 pts from 6 games to reach 40
= 6 wins + 2 draws minimum(111% of available points)
Wolves
17 ptsNeed 23 pts from 6 games to reach 40
= 7 wins + 2 draws minimum(128% of available points)
Head-to-Head: Bottom 6 vs Bottom 6
These 7 remaining games between the bottom 6 are the key battlegrounds. Every point matters doubly when it's taken directly from a rival.
| Round | Home | vs | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| R33 | Leeds | vs | Wolves |
| R33 | Nott'm Forest | vs | Burnley |
| R34 | Wolves | vs | Spurs |
| R35 | Leeds | vs | Burnley |
| R36 | Spurs | vs | Leeds |
| R38 | Burnley | vs | Wolves |
| R38 | West Ham | vs | Leeds |
Remaining Fixtures by Team
Leeds
Nott'm Forest
West Ham
Spurs
Burnley
Wolves
Methodology
- 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations of all remaining Premier League fixtures.
- Baseline outcome probabilities: Home Win 45%, Draw 25%, Away Win 30%.
- All 20 teams simulated — not just the bottom 6 — to account for the full table context.
- Points as of 15 April 2026 (Matchday 32). All teams on 32 matches played except Man City (31).
- This model uses uniform probabilities and does not weight by form, xG, or squad quality. Actual relegation odds from bookmakers may differ.