The Verdict
Wolves and Burnley are virtually certain to go down, appearing together in the bottom 3 in 99.7% of simulations. The real battle is for that final relegation spot between West Ham (39.5%), Spurs (28.5%), and Nott'm Forest (24.3%). Leeds still have work to do at 9.6% but should survive.
Current Standings
| # | Team | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 70 | |
| 2 | Man City | 61 | |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 51 | |
| 4 | Man Utd | 51 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 48 | |
| 6 | Chelsea | 48 | |
| 7 | Brentford | 44 | |
| 8 | Everton | 43 | |
| 9 | Newcastle | 42 | |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 41 | |
| 11 | Brighton | 40 | |
| 12 | Fulham | 40 | |
| 13 | Sunderland | 40 | |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 39 | AT RISK |
| 15 | Leeds | 32 | AT RISK |
| 16 | Spurs | 29 | AT RISK |
| 17 | Nott'm Forest | 29 | AT RISK |
| 18 | West Ham | 29 | RELEGATION ZONE |
| 19 | Burnley | 20 | RELEGATION ZONE |
| 20 | Wolves | 16 | RELEGATION ZONE |
Points as of 15 March 2026. Crystal Palace vs Leeds drawn 0-0. Liverpool vs Spurs in progress (1-0). Brentford vs Wolves on Monday.
Relegation Probability
Based on 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations using baseline home/draw/away probabilities (45%/25%/30%).
Most Likely Relegated Trios
The top 4 combinations account for 97.6% of all outcomes.
Show less likely combinations...
Expected Final Points Distribution
Projected point totals from simulation. The historic survival line is typically 36–38 points.
| Team | Worst (5%) | 25th | Median | 75th | Best (95%) | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal PalaceSAFE | 45 | 49 | 52 | 54 | 58 | 51.6 |
| LeedsOK | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 44.2 |
| Nott'm ForestAT RISK | 35 | 39 | 42 | 44 | 48 | 41.6 |
| SpursAT RISK | 35 | 38 | 41 | 44 | 48 | 41.2 |
| West HamAT RISK | 34 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 46 | 40 |
| BurnleyDOWN | 25 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 37 | 31 |
| WolvesDOWN | 21 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 26.5 |
What Each Team Needs to Survive
Crystal Palace
39 ptsAlready above historic survival line
Leeds
32 ptsNeed 4 pts from 9 games to reach 36
= 2 wins minimum(15% of available points)
Spurs
29 ptsNeed 7 pts from 9 games to reach 36
= 3 wins minimum(26% of available points)
Nott'm Forest
29 ptsNeed 7 pts from 9 games to reach 36
= 3 wins minimum(26% of available points)
West Ham
29 ptsNeed 7 pts from 8 games to reach 36
= 3 wins minimum(29% of available points)
Burnley
20 ptsNeed 16 pts from 8 games to reach 36
= 6 wins minimum(67% of available points)
Wolves
16 ptsNeed 20 pts from 8 games to reach 36
= 7 wins minimum(83% of available points)
Head-to-Head: Bottom 7 vs Bottom 7
These 11 remaining games between the bottom 7 are the key battlegrounds. Every point matters doubly when it's taken directly from a rival.
| Round | Home | vs | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| R30 | Crystal Palace | vs | Leeds |
| R31 | Spurs | vs | Nott'm Forest |
| R32 | West Ham | vs | Wolves |
| R33 | Leeds | vs | Wolves |
| R33 | Nott'm Forest | vs | Burnley |
| R33 | Crystal Palace | vs | West Ham |
| R34 | Wolves | vs | Spurs |
| R35 | Leeds | vs | Burnley |
| R36 | Spurs | vs | Leeds |
| R38 | Burnley | vs | Wolves |
| R38 | West Ham | vs | Leeds |
Remaining Fixtures by Team
Crystal Palace
Leeds
Spurs
Nott'm Forest
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves
Methodology
- 200,000 Monte Carlo simulations of all remaining Premier League fixtures.
- Baseline outcome probabilities: Home Win 45%, Draw 25%, Away Win 30%.
- All 20 teams simulated — not just the bottom 7 — to account for the full table context.
- Points as stated by the user on 15 March 2026, with Crystal Palace 1-1 Leeds already reflected.
- Liverpool vs Spurs in progress (1-0) and Brentford vs Wolves (Mon) treated as unplayed in the simulation.
- This model uses uniform probabilities and does not weight by form, xG, or squad quality. Actual relegation odds from bookmakers may differ.